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About Mikey

Economist, Mathematician, Business advisor and Sustainability practitioner

I experienced culture shock…

when for the first time I saw black people rummaging through my rubbish on waste collection day.

Shock that they were going through MY rubbish, another black person (I had crossed to the other side (the dark side?)) Shock and sadness also that so many black people (still) live that kind of life. I knew about can and plastic collectors, this was easier to deal with because there’s a commercial element to it. But looking for food scraps?

This was many years ago. On my run this morning, I saw them again. I was not shocked because I have gotten used to the sight.

But I still felt sadness that, despite the best efforts of the government to lift people out of poverty, the challenge remains huge. What is to be done?

Clearly South Africa needs to be on a higher growth path in order to create jobs, invest in education so that people can be employable or start their own businesses. This will lessen people who find themselves in desperate straits, but realistically can never completely eliminate poverty. The government and society at large need to continue looking for creative solutions to deal with this challenge.

Economic contraction in US

It turns out that the Q1 contraction in the South African economy coincided with a contraction in the economy of the United States. Who could have foreseen that? The US contraction has been blamed on foul weather.

What to make of this seemingly unrelated contraction in both economies? The jury will probably be out for a while on what this portends.

There had been an indication that the US economy was healthy and doing better than the general world economy. The contraction has seemingly been a bolt from the blue.

One thing, though. A contraction in SA is clearly problematic for the local economy. A US contraction could be a blessing or a curse, depending on the response of the Fed (and the SARB). Halting or even reversing tapering would affect the SA economy positively, but the contraction could also spook investors. We also wait to see the movement of the US$. Unfortunately, movements either up or down can both be a blessing and a curse for the SA economy.

One hopes the SARB has a nimble strategy in place to deal with either eventuality.

The platinum strike

May have pushed South Africa into recession. But the restrictive monetary policies pursued by the South African Reserve Bank are also responsible, not just for this impending recession, but for the sluggish growth and stubbornly high unemployment.

While other central banks, notably the US Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, loosened monetary policy and effected other measures to stimulate economic activity, the SARB has maintained a relatively tight stance. This policy is wrong and misguided.

The platinum strike should be resolved as soon as possible. But the SARB should craft and implement policies that are not just narrowly focused on inflation. It should also play its part in boosting employment and growth.