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About Mikey

Economist, Mathematician, Business advisor and Sustainability practitioner

Legalise sex work

And while at it, legalise marijuana too.

The main reason sex work is illegal in South Africa, a country with a progressive, secular constitution that recognises same sex partnerships, is an appeasement to the religious lobby. Interestingly, though, sections of these self-same religious groups have reduced their sensitivity towards same sex relationships and they now even ordain gay priests. Why then still leave sex work out in the cold?

And as far as marijuana is concerned, it seems indisputable that it has medicinal properties that are advantageous towards the treatment or amelioration of the pain of cancer sufferers. In addition, the criminalisation of marijuana use discriminates against the cultural beliefs of some indigenous South Africans, which surely violates the constitution.

The legalisation of both sex work and marijuana can enable the tax authorities to bring both into the tax net and generate additional revenues. And it would also free the police to focus their resources on more debilitating crimes.

Thabo #Mbeki, #Castro Hlongwane and the cat that crossed the road

I was having my own personal frustrations, thinking: Where are the ANC or left intellectuals?

Not the top six officials or government ministers or Parliamentarians, but members whose pursuit and interest is intellectual debate, polemics, ideas. And then President Mbeki reappeared on the scene with his letter series. I must confess that my initial instinct was one of annoyance, a feeling that he should just be quiet and enjoy his retirement. I instinctively felt that he’s trying to make himself relevant by resurrecting old issues. Why not, as some argued, just write his memoirs? Then it hit me.

Mbeki is an intellectual, and he has every right to write on any topic of his fancy. In fact, he has initiated debate on a number of topics, including his motives for writing these letters. For far too long what passed for intellectual discourse has been dominated by neoliberal analysts and newspaper columnists. The reappearance of Mbeki in the past few weeks has created a much needed counter-balance to the dominant narrative. And those who are calling for him to shut up are either misguided or disingenuous. Are these not the same people who accuse the ANC of stifling debate? The fact that Mbeki is a former president is perhaps irrelevant. Or not. But he has every right to apply his great intellect to any topic he wishes. That is not to say we should agree with him. Disagree if you must, but embrace the space he’s creating for debate on a number of issues.

I listened to his keynote at the anniversary celebrations of the Human Rights Commission this morning. I was happy that he had been invited to be the main speaker; after all, he was there at the birth of the HRC, the constitution of the republic and all chapter nine institutions. And he didn’t disappoint me. I sat (unplanned) in front of my screen watching, listening, fascinated. The issues he addressed, racism, sexism, transformation and the two-nation paradigm, were not new. What fascinated me was, here’s an intellectual who’s been missing from the scene. And it’s better now because he’s not the president anymore, but someone who can and should be engaged without fear of potential victimisation.

Instead of complaining we should rejoice that he’s re-entered public life and embrace the space for debate that he’s opened up.

Praying for rain…

By all means, let the people pray for rain. Let those who want do the rain dance.

But…

Leaders should refrain from burying their heads in the sand. The science, the economics are long settled. Do the work the electorate expect of you and leave the metaphysics to the citizens.

Embracing failure

Red Card for some South Africans (including journalists & commentators.) Since when is it wrong to have ambition and the cojones to go with it?

Many of us have ‘armchair’ ambition and are too timid to act. Why, then, deride Tokyo for his chutzpah? To succeed, you have to embrace the possibility of failure. We should be celebrating & applauding one of our own for trying. Countless times South Africans complain about our under-representation in continental & international bodies, and yet those few who dare to throw their hats in the ring are not supported, and when they meet difficulties & even fail, we express glee.

How are our kids going to be inspired when we label a person with courage to try a “Mampara?”

In Silicon Valley, where failing is not only encouraged but celebrated, the motto is “Fail often, and fail fast.” Perhaps we would be more successful as a nation if we embrace such a culture.

The MPC and mechanical decision-making

The Monetary Policy Committee (#MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (#SARB) met in one of their pre-planned meetings last week to consider the internal and global economic environment. At these meetings the MPC also regularly decides on interest rates (specifically the repurchase or repo rate), which is the instrument used by the SARB to regulate inflation in the republic.

As predicted, the MPC decided to raise rates by 50 basis points. As decisions go, this was a forgone conclusion. Indeed, the MPC takes its decisions in a mechanical way, like toggling a switch. Decisions are hardly nuanced or creative, nor do they hardly surprise. In fact, an algorithm could replace the MPC and these highly paid and highly qualified individuals could be better utilised elsewhere, with huge costs savings.

The MPC believes it is important to be seen to be consistent and rational in decision-making. This is so in order not to spook the markets. This, of course, presupposes that the markets are rational and always factor in the fundamentals and the consistency of decision-making in their reaction. We know, however, that in fact markets have a ‘mind’ of their own, otherwise why would they get spooked by a 0.1 percent fall in Chinese growth, which is still a not shabby 6.9 percent. Why else would the currencies of all emerging economies fall when there are problems in just one country. Why would the Yuan be under pressure? This happens because emerging markets are manipulated by speculators (hedge fund managers) who frequently rely on algorithms to ‘take’ decisions.

Therefore, in effect, the MPC meets to take decisions with an eye towards the reaction of these algorithms. And in the process the South African economy is beholden to these self-same algorithms. Where one looks for bold action like the recent Bank of Japan decision to reduce rates below zero, or the confident and nuanced decisions of the US Fed, we get the uninspired toggling of a switch. No creativity here. No regard to the effect a rate increase will have on an already fragile economy.

Even the Bank of England is seriously considering negative interest rates in order to boost the economy. The ANC and the government have to decide on what is important. If creating jobs is a priority, then policies and actions should be implemented towards this goal. The SARB stance of tightening monetary policy is not going to aid that goal.

Those people who believe, under these circumstances, that we will get any meaningful growth and a dent on unemployment are deluding themselves. Unless, fortuitously, the external environment changes in our favour…