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About Mikey

Economist, Mathematician, Business advisor and Sustainability practitioner

Biden’s Hypocrisy on Iran and Cuba

During the American presidential campaign, Joe Biden made a number of foreign policy promises. For me, a non-American who didn’t matter in the scheme of American politics, the three promises that stood out and that made me supportive of a Biden win, and indeed hopeful and elated when he did win, were: Biden’s promise to reverse Trump’s decision and re-enter the Iran nuclear deal; the promise to revive contacts with Cuba and end the embargo Trump had re-imposed; and, lastly, to re-enter the Paris Climate Accord.

Biden has made good on the last one, immediately signing an executive order giving effect to his promise. However, for me the first two were more important in that they have been the most egregious of American foreign policies, consigning the peoples of both Iran and Cuba to the most difficult conditions and to pose existential threats to both countries. Biden’s reluctance to honour his promises in this respect are puzzling and very disappointing. CNN’s Fareed Zakaria’s take on this is that Biden is playing to a domestic audience, in particular Republicans. Whatever his reasons, his snail pace or seeming hypocrisy are unacceptable.

To his enduring credit, former American president Barack Obama had bucked decades of American foreign policy by signing the Iran nuclear deal and ending the Cuban isolation. 

When Trump came to power, he immediately reversed course on both policies. Before and during his campaign, Biden vehemently criticised Trump for these two decisions, among others, vowing to reverse them if and when he won. He hasn’t done that. Surprisingly, Biden’s new foreign and national security teams are essentially the same people who negotiated both policies under Obama. Particularly with respect to the Iran nuclear deal, they made a point of arguing that Trump’s so-called maximum pressure campaign of sanctions was not going to succeed because the deal they had negotiated was as good as it could get. Now that they are in power, however, they have hypocritically maintained the sanctions and are seeking to wring new concessions from Iran as a pre-condition to re-entering the deal. This is unacceptable and is a case of wanting to have their cake and eating it.

The world should call out Biden on his hypocrisy, and the other members of the Iran nuclear deal should support Iran’s position that the US is the one at fault for having pulled out and the starting point is them returning, and not the other way round as they are arguing. Clearly, at this point the only difference between Biden and Trump is that there is no imminent threat of war or missile strikes against Iran, but the suffering experienced by ordinary Iranians hasn’t changed. It would seem that, for the world, there may be no point in trusting American administrations, whether Democrat or Republican.

Anachronisms

War is an anachronism. So are those beating war drums from time to time.

Nation states are an anachronism. Which is why moves toward greater integration, like the European Union, are a big step forward. That is, until they themselves become instruments of exclusion: huge trade barriers against non-member states; exclusion of African and other migrants, etc.

Amassing vast amounts of personal wealth, ‘billionairism,’ is an anachronism if done at the expense of other fellow humans, or if it insulates the owners to the human suffering around them.

Methods of production that are harmful to the environment are an anachronism. Especially when there are proven technologies that can achieve the same goals without harmful emissions or resource waste.

Fossil fuels are an anachronism.

Political parties are an anachronism, especially if they are merely an instrument to acquire state power in order to control the national resources. They are an anachronism if they perpetuate nation states, create or exacerbate divisions nationally, regionally and internationally.

Marriage is an anachronism. Whatever the initial societal reasons, the high rate of divorce, spousal abuse and choices now available for both men and women render the whole marriage construct questionable.

Customs and traditions and superstitions are an anachronism, especially those that lead to abuses towards sections of the population, or those that perpetuate backwardness and unscientific beliefs and actions.

Is religion also not an anachronism?

Advances in science, knowledge systems, and technology render many or all of these human constructs unnecessary. When are societal organisation going to catch up?

Mandela’s missed opportunity

President Mandela was correct to focus on reconciliation as the cornerstone of his short presidency.


He was incorrect, and missed a great opportunity, however, in ignoring or downplaying the need for redress or transformation. Given his moral standing, a strong push for redress coming from him would have been much easier to sell to white business and foreign investors. Quite frankly, the whole world expected it and therefore resistance would have been muted.


Unfortunately, President Mbeki, while doing something about it, focused too much on economic orthodoxy for his efforts to bear much fruit.


President Zuma, quite frankly, lacked the stature of both Presidents Mandela and Mbeki, and given that his ‘renewed’ push for “radical economic transformation” came hard on the heels of much publicised alleged wrong-doing, many questioned his motives or timing. His push also came late in his presidency, when for all intents and purposes he was a lame duck president.

The redress project, however, can never be postponed forever. Sooner or later it has to happen. Otherwise, liberation and the NDR would surely have been betrayed.

Consistency

The mother of success is consistency. When you find or learn the tools and methods that work and you apply them consistently, success is likely to result.

Variety is good, talent helps, brilliance makes a difference, but consistent application, consistently showing up, that is the key.

The golfer who consistently practices his swing, his putting. The tennis player who hits balls for hours, everyday. The football player who practices for long hours taking penalties or free kicks. The long distance runner who piles on the milage on regularly, hardening the muscles, toughening the mind, creating muscle memory. These are the people who create the possibility and potential for success.

Known unknowns and unknown unknowns

Every decision or action has a consequence, intended or unintended.

Imperfect knowledge is a near certainty, which is why future outcomes can’t be predicted fully. That is why we assign probabilities. Some information and knowledge deficiencies are known, and yet others are not. Only in the fields of mathematics and natural sciences (with existing knowledge) can outcomes be known with near certainty.


Imperfect knowledge creates arbitrage opportunities…or disasters. Good leaders and managers try to maximise the former and minimise the latter. No use pleading ignorance when things go wrong.


Politicians, citizens and business people can’t abdicate their responsibility either. They become beneficiaries of pleasant outcomes when things go right, or suffer disappointment and loss when things go wrong. Their actions, therefore, equally matter but they are also taken in the face of imperfect knowledge.


The sooner we all accept, therefore, that we can never predict any future with certainty the better. This means current outcomes couldn’t have been predicted with 100% certainty or couldn’t have been predicted at all, nor can future outcomes, whichever choices are made today. No use pretending otherwise.

The curse of mineral riches

Do mineral riches matter at all for economic development? No, otherwise mineral deficient countries like Singapore would be begging nations.


On the other hand, many mineral-endowed countries seem cursed to a perpetual state of underdevelopment or continually playing catch-up. Mineral riches also seemingly create lazy thinking, a thinking that fails to take cognisance of global market conditions and responding timely to changes coming over the horizon. It also engenders a thinking that depends solely on a fortuitous piece of natural luck that put a nation on top of mineral abundance.


Economic development is about making the smart choices that will propel the nation along a sustainable growth trajectory. It is also about harnessing comparative advantages, and where none seem to exist, smartly ‘creating’ these. 


Doubtless, mineral endowments offer a comparative advantage in a world that craves and depends on these. But this comparative advantage has to be exploited with smart strategies that are adaptable to changing global conditions. For if there is one lesson from modern economic history, it is that global conditions are always changing. This comparative advantage may not always be the same through the ages, so it is important to discern when it is time to change direction and harness or create new advantages. And mineral endowments are not forever…

Crying over the spilt milk of changing global conditions that mean your minerals may no longer be as valuable as they were yesterday is a sign of lack of forward planning, as are empty barns in times of drought.

Smart decisions

Smart decision making is about knowing that you cannot remain still, knowing that the country has to keep moving forward, adapting to changing internal and external dynamics. It is also about developing a culture of smart execution, and not just having supposedly great paper strategies. For without smart execution, you have nothing.


Execution is not just about taking decisive action, it is also about taking timely action. Unresponsive 5-year plans, or rigid priorities that are set once and cannot be revisited even when conditions change, are a recipe for disaster. Continuous consultation, perpetual and timid postponement of action, are enemies of progress.


In these turbulent times it is sometimes necessary to turn on a tickey. Smart leadership is having the confidence to execute this without skipping a heart beat.


Smart decision making is also about making tough choices. It is about creating the conditions where your citizens know and accept that to have a prosperous future, they have to accept and endure the pain of today, the pain of transition from one phase in their forward motion to the next.

Easy choices are easy to make, and they make for transient happiness and satisfaction, but they mean harder and more painful decisions later. The time for hard choices is now.

Let them eat cake

Many leaders, even democratically elected ones and former revolutionaries, tend to take their people for granted. They demonstrate an insensitivity to their feelings and plight.

Nelson Mandela and Franklin Roosevelt possessed a rare ability to bring their people along with them, even as they embarked on difficult political projects in their nations’ histories.

Leaders would do well to emulate these iconic individuals.

It is really an intellectual game

Development is really, ultimately, an intellectual game. 

The standard prerequisites for development are well known, but the power of intellect is hardly ever mentioned, if at all.

The fact that intellectual capital, intellectual wealth, trumps everything.

The intellect of a people to choose and elect the right leaders.

The intellect of the leaders to choose and doggedly follow the right policies.

The intellect to realise and understand that, ultimately, intellect trumps everything.

The intellect to realise that lack of natural endowments/resources does not doom you to failure, that there are many paths to development, that in fact, in a perverse but virtuous way, lack of endowments may actually be a blessing because it frees the intellect to think creatively, to innovate, not to depend on ‘natural capital’, but to depend on abundant, perpetual intellectual capital. Or, conversely, that abundant natural resources are not a prerequisite, nor do they ensure, development and that, perversely, if unaccompanied by intellectual power may actually be a ‘curse’ for they tend to lull the mind and promote lazy thinking.

Give me a resource rich country, and I’ll give you a country with none but is at the top of all human and economic development indices.

All that is required is to free the intellect and shun lazy thinking like the plague.