State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability -Liberty Street Economics

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York partnered with Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) for the second annual State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability on December 14-15, 2020. Hosted virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the conference took place amidst the unfolding news of a cyberattack against a major cybersecurity vendor and software vendor, underscoring vulnerabilities from cyber risk.
— Read on libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2021/02/state-of-the-field-conference-on-cyber-risk-to-financial-stability.html

Collaborators

At different times in history, and under different circumstances, the word “collaborator” has connoted something negative. To be dubbed a collaborator meant you were a bad person, you had sold out your “people”, your comrades.

Those Black people and leaders who collaborated with the Apartheid regime in South Africa, who chose to “work within the system” were reviled because they were used as an instrument of oppression, they were used to spread the lie that there was Black self-government, they were used to institutionalise the homeland or Bantustan system.

In Europe, collaborators worked with the Nazi occupiers to oppress and repress their citizens. They helped to out members of the resistance, and to point out those who were hiding Jews. There are countless other similar instances throughout history and in different parts of the world.

In science, in tech, in business, however, collaboration is a good thing. To be a collaborator shows maturity and intelligence, especially emotional intelligence. Numerous inventions, numerous endeavours, would not have been possible, or they would have been difficult, to achieve without collaboration. Frequently many projects are only possible through collaboration. The race to build the atomic bomb in America was a collaboration of a number of eminent scientists. The International Space Station was and is a collaboration of a number of nations, including political, military and security rivals (or enemies?) Russia and the United States. In fact, for many years until late 2020, the US didn’t even have the capability to send astronauts to the ISS and had to rely on the collaboration and cooperation of Russia. The United Nations system, the World Bank and the IMF, etc., all are a result of cooperation and collaboration. The latest example are the several COVID-19 vaccine initiatives, both on the side of Big Pharma and researchers, and on the side of nations.

Developing a healthy regard towards collaboration is key to success and progress. While competition is also good, after all it too does drive success, it is foolhardy to disdain collaboration. We require more, not less, collaboration. We need to grow more collaborators. In science, in tech, in business, to be dubbed a collaborator is a badge of honour. 

Biden’s Hypocrisy on Iran and Cuba

During the American presidential campaign, Joe Biden made a number of foreign policy promises. For me, a non-American who didn’t matter in the scheme of American politics, the three promises that stood out and that made me supportive of a Biden win, and indeed hopeful and elated when he did win, were: Biden’s promise to reverse Trump’s decision and re-enter the Iran nuclear deal; the promise to revive contacts with Cuba and end the embargo Trump had re-imposed; and, lastly, to re-enter the Paris Climate Accord.

Biden has made good on the last one, immediately signing an executive order giving effect to his promise. However, for me the first two were more important in that they have been the most egregious of American foreign policies, consigning the peoples of both Iran and Cuba to the most difficult conditions and to pose existential threats to both countries. Biden’s reluctance to honour his promises in this respect are puzzling and very disappointing. CNN’s Fareed Zakaria’s take on this is that Biden is playing to a domestic audience, in particular Republicans. Whatever his reasons, his snail pace or seeming hypocrisy are unacceptable.

To his enduring credit, former American president Barack Obama had bucked decades of American foreign policy by signing the Iran nuclear deal and ending the Cuban isolation. 

When Trump came to power, he immediately reversed course on both policies. Before and during his campaign, Biden vehemently criticised Trump for these two decisions, among others, vowing to reverse them if and when he won. He hasn’t done that. Surprisingly, Biden’s new foreign and national security teams are essentially the same people who negotiated both policies under Obama. Particularly with respect to the Iran nuclear deal, they made a point of arguing that Trump’s so-called maximum pressure campaign of sanctions was not going to succeed because the deal they had negotiated was as good as it could get. Now that they are in power, however, they have hypocritically maintained the sanctions and are seeking to wring new concessions from Iran as a pre-condition to re-entering the deal. This is unacceptable and is a case of wanting to have their cake and eating it.

The world should call out Biden on his hypocrisy, and the other members of the Iran nuclear deal should support Iran’s position that the US is the one at fault for having pulled out and the starting point is them returning, and not the other way round as they are arguing. Clearly, at this point the only difference between Biden and Trump is that there is no imminent threat of war or missile strikes against Iran, but the suffering experienced by ordinary Iranians hasn’t changed. It would seem that, for the world, there may be no point in trusting American administrations, whether Democrat or Republican.

Anachronisms

War is an anachronism. So are those beating war drums from time to time.

Nation states are an anachronism. Which is why moves toward greater integration, like the European Union, are a big step forward. That is, until they themselves become instruments of exclusion: huge trade barriers against non-member states; exclusion of African and other migrants, etc.

Amassing vast amounts of personal wealth, ‘billionairism,’ is an anachronism if done at the expense of other fellow humans, or if it insulates the owners to the human suffering around them.

Methods of production that are harmful to the environment are an anachronism. Especially when there are proven technologies that can achieve the same goals without harmful emissions or resource waste.

Fossil fuels are an anachronism.

Political parties are an anachronism, especially if they are merely an instrument to acquire state power in order to control the national resources. They are an anachronism if they perpetuate nation states, create or exacerbate divisions nationally, regionally and internationally.

Marriage is an anachronism. Whatever the initial societal reasons, the high rate of divorce, spousal abuse and choices now available for both men and women render the whole marriage construct questionable.

Customs and traditions and superstitions are an anachronism, especially those that lead to abuses towards sections of the population, or those that perpetuate backwardness and unscientific beliefs and actions.

Is religion also not an anachronism?

Advances in science, knowledge systems, and technology render many or all of these human constructs unnecessary. When are societal organisation going to catch up?

Mandela’s missed opportunity

President Mandela was correct to focus on reconciliation as the cornerstone of his short presidency.


He was incorrect, and missed a great opportunity, however, in ignoring or downplaying the need for redress or transformation. Given his moral standing, a strong push for redress coming from him would have been much easier to sell to white business and foreign investors. Quite frankly, the whole world expected it and therefore resistance would have been muted.


Unfortunately, President Mbeki, while doing something about it, focused too much on economic orthodoxy for his efforts to bear much fruit.


President Zuma, quite frankly, lacked the stature of both Presidents Mandela and Mbeki, and given that his ‘renewed’ push for “radical economic transformation” came hard on the heels of much publicised alleged wrong-doing, many questioned his motives or timing. His push also came late in his presidency, when for all intents and purposes he was a lame duck president.

The redress project, however, can never be postponed forever. Sooner or later it has to happen. Otherwise, liberation and the NDR would surely have been betrayed.

Consistency

The mother of success is consistency. When you find or learn the tools and methods that work and you apply them consistently, success is likely to result.

Variety is good, talent helps, brilliance makes a difference, but consistent application, consistently showing up, that is the key.

The golfer who consistently practices his swing, his putting. The tennis player who hits balls for hours, everyday. The football player who practices for long hours taking penalties or free kicks. The long distance runner who piles on the milage on regularly, hardening the muscles, toughening the mind, creating muscle memory. These are the people who create the possibility and potential for success.

Known unknowns and unknown unknowns

Every decision or action has a consequence, intended or unintended.

Imperfect knowledge is a near certainty, which is why future outcomes can’t be predicted fully. That is why we assign probabilities. Some information and knowledge deficiencies are known, and yet others are not. Only in the fields of mathematics and natural sciences (with existing knowledge) can outcomes be known with near certainty.


Imperfect knowledge creates arbitrage opportunities…or disasters. Good leaders and managers try to maximise the former and minimise the latter. No use pleading ignorance when things go wrong.


Politicians, citizens and business people can’t abdicate their responsibility either. They become beneficiaries of pleasant outcomes when things go right, or suffer disappointment and loss when things go wrong. Their actions, therefore, equally matter but they are also taken in the face of imperfect knowledge.


The sooner we all accept, therefore, that we can never predict any future with certainty the better. This means current outcomes couldn’t have been predicted with 100% certainty or couldn’t have been predicted at all, nor can future outcomes, whichever choices are made today. No use pretending otherwise.